Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $30K
- User PnL
- -$90
Polymarket Trader
0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876
0x2b670a311561dcaf741d8155451774d3fa7fb814
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $29.19K
- Realized PnL
- $20.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $983.27
- Potential payout
- $15.13K
- Potential profit
- $14.14K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$186.25
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$1.11K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.25K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$508.39
Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $5.16K
- Potential payout
- $6.37K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.1K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$350.01
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$231.99
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $4.37K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $625
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $675.02
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $2.67K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $2.32K
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $674.94
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.68K
- Potential profit
- $4.68K
- User PnL
- -$2.17K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.17K
- Potential profit
- $4.17K
- User PnL
- -$329.44
Yes position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.06K
- Potential profit
- $4.06K
- User PnL
- -$181.07
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.83K
- Potential profit
- $2.83K
- User PnL
- -$524
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $2.58K
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $9.07
- User PnL
- -$5.32
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $1.47K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $530
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $460.14
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.85K
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $2.78
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$180.34
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $517.35
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $982.65
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$7.15
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$454.49
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $1.44K
- Potential payout
- $1.46K
- Potential profit
- $27.81
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $23.99
N
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $1.38K
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $47.22
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $39.63
Yes position
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$35.12
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$140
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3K
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- $1.88K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Multiplier
- 10.47x
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $896.37
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $756.31
Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $413.07
Cavaliers position
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.1
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.79
Knicks position
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.6
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.41
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.5
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $143.98
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.42
Yes position
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.75
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.3
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.23
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $91.09
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $68.39
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 16.9% 10,000.01 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 35% 1,500 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No 82% 605.89 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 87% 12 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 18% 7,457.98 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 19.7% 1,088.72 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 94.6% 3,592.26 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?No 96.5% 341.98 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No 99% 104.66 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026?No 99.8% 30.3 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026?No 99.9% 2,561.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No 98.6% 101 shares