No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$500
Polymarket Trader
JackStraw
0x2bae96f2e37f5474016f754c0ade0f6012892e92
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $651.75
- Realized PnL
- $14.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$388
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$382
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $40.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $259.5
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$72.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $214.9
- Potential payout
- $284.64
- Potential profit
- $69.74
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $44.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $155.6
- Potential payout
- $261.52
- Potential profit
- $105.92
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $22.23
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $53.75
- Potential payout
- $249.98
- Potential profit
- $196.24
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
No position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$133.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $187
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $13
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $43
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
Yes position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
Trump wins every swing state?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $912.57
Yes position
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $815.67
Yes position
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $809.5
Yes position
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $544.19
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $511.38
Yes position
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $427.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $392.04
No position
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $383.69
Yes position
Trump Rust Belt swing state sweep?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $348.5
Yes position
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.69
Yes position
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $313.93
No position
Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $310.49
Yes position
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $286.06
Yes position
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.02
Yes position
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $269.1
Trump position
Who will win Bucks county?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.1
No position
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264.49
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.48
Yes position
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $259.68
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 50% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 66% 500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 60% 184.64 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 51% 261.52 shares
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes 47% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 81% 231.74 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 99.2% 500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 80% 19 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 65% 400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 85% 500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 58% 100 shares