Polymarket Trader

TheNoobBeaver

@Polynoob_

0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.38K
Realized PnL: $24.77K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 50
Closed positions: 50
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $91.34
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$3.66

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $1.23K
User PnL: -$302.55

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Cloud9 New York position

Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 2 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $937.63
Potential profit: $937.63
User PnL: -$157

LGD Gaming position

LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $930.3
Potential profit: $930.3
User PnL: -$300

Top Esports position

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5)

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $916.14
Potential profit: $916.14
User PnL: -$300

No position

Will Eric Adams drop out?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $909.09
Potential profit: $909.09
User PnL: -$400

No position

Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $429.47
Potential payout: $904.15
Potential profit: $474.68
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$95.53

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $877.19
Potential profit: $871.49
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$44.3

No position

Will Trump say "NATO" during Hungary PM events on November 7?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $842.11
Potential profit: $842.11
User PnL: -$160

No position

Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?

Ends Oct 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $839.92
Potential profit: $839.92
User PnL: -$278

No position

Will "Eddington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?

Ends Jul 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $833.71
Potential profit: $833.71
User PnL: -$214

Yes position

Will MrBeast raise 40m on Monday September 1?

Ends Sep 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $799.02
Potential profit: $799.02
User PnL: -$52.2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $798.04
Potential profit: $798.04
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $794.72
Potential profit: $794.72
User PnL: -$115.15

Yes position

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $788.9
Potential profit: $788.9
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $52.32
Potential payout: $786.73
Potential profit: $734.41
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$19.68

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $778.17
Potential profit: $778.17
User PnL: -$58

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $770.55
Potential profit: $770.55
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $765.15
Potential profit: $764
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.85

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $708.42
Potential profit: $708.42
User PnL: -$78.75

Riyadh Falcons position

Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 2 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $702.45
Potential profit: $702.45
User PnL: -$191.9

Anyones Legend position

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700.29
Potential profit: $700.29
User PnL: -$82

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $698.45
Potential profit: $698.45
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $691.07
Potential profit: $691.07
User PnL: -$285.41

Yes position

Will Doom: The Dark Ages win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $681.75
Potential profit: $681.75
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $680.22
Potential profit: $680.22
User PnL: -$47

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $286.52
Potential payout: $674.15
Potential profit: $387.64
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$33.48

No position

Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $674.03
Potential profit: $674.03
User PnL: -$530

Miami Heretics position

Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 2 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $642.49
Potential profit: $642.49
User PnL: -$158.1

No position

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $629.52
Potential profit: $629.52
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $628.79
Potential profit: $628.79
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $628.67
Potential profit: $628.67
User PnL: -$19

Oh My God position

LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5)

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $613.19
Potential profit: $613.19
User PnL: -$41.8

Yes position

Will Factset Research (FDS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Ends Sep 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $606.06
Potential profit: $606.06
User PnL: -$400

Yes position

Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $581.72
Potential profit: $581.72
User PnL: -$19.15

Yes position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $581.18
Potential profit: $581.18
User PnL: -$26.47

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $572.14
Potential profit: $572.14
User PnL: -$8

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $560
Potential profit: $560
User PnL: -$18.1

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $514.22
Potential payout: $555.92
Potential profit: $41.69
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $10.54

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.06
Potential profit: $555.06
User PnL: -$70.91

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $541.72
Potential profit: $541.72
User PnL: -$207.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $525
Potential profit: $525
User PnL: -$231

G2 Minnesota position

Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 2 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $522.63
Potential profit: $522.63
User PnL: -$260

No position

Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday?

Ends Jul 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $518.47
Potential profit: $518.47
User PnL: -$124.88

KT Rolster position

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.51
Potential profit: $509.51
User PnL: -$164

Yes position

Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.23
Potential profit: $509.23
User PnL: -$13

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $506.65
Potential profit: $506.65
User PnL: -$47

ThunderTalk Gaming position

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $501.64
Potential profit: $501.64
User PnL: -$145

Yes position

Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $117-128m?

Ends Jul 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $895.12

Yes position

Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $823.71

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $817.29

Yes position

Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $764.16

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $763.11

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $687.3

No position

SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $664.71

Yes position

Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $563.54

Yes position

Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $553.53

No position

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $551.4

No position

Will Trump and Elon say "DOGE" 3 or more times during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $519.35

No position

Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $480.08

Riyadh Falcons position

Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Boston Breach (BO5)

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470

EDward Gaming position

LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.07

Yes position

Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.6

Yes position

Will the Palisades fire burn between 20-30k acres in total?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $450.97

Yes position

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $447.64

No position

Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?

Ends Feb 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428.35

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $415.95

Riyadh Falcons position

Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5)

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.97

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.66

No position

Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $385.31

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $376.85

Yes position

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $372.04

No position

Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $364.63

Yes position

U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.66

No position

Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more than 72%?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $359.58

Yes position

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $334.31

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.78

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.68

Yes position

Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?

Ends Sep 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $326.52

G2 Minnesota position

Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.79

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.27

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $321.8

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313.68

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?

Ends May 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $308.75

Yes position

Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.45

No position

Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.55

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.88

No position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $291.75

Yes position

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Pakistan before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.75

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.13

Yes position

Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.45

No position

Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday?

Ends Aug 23, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $275.15

Team WE position

LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.93

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 35% 171.43 shares
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?

No 38.8% 38.7 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 40.7% 86.06 shares
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 29.9% 33.5 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.9% 38.76 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.9% 155.04 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 48% 4.17 shares
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18?

No 90.7% 16.53 shares
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19?

No 64% 5.01 shares
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20?

No 92% 5.43 shares
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18?

No 90% 33.33 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 54% 18.52 shares