1universeV

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.96
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.86
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.65
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $1.26

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 17.6%
Current value: $2.63
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.37
Multiplier: 5.70x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.8
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $12.08
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $4.57

Yes position

Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.93
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $2.08
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.92
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: $1.99

Yes position

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.84
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.96
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.81
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.69
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.83
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.96
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.96
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.28

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $70.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on April 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 26?

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 18?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.66

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 25?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 22?