Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $147.74
- Potential payout
- $59.1K
- Potential profit
- $58.95K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.96K
Polymarket Trader
Dragontree
0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $18.25K
- Realized PnL
- $363.92K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.3%
- Current value
- $3.06K
- Potential payout
- $23.13K
- Potential profit
- $20.06K
- Multiplier
- 7.55x
- User PnL
- $451.05
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $5.52K
- Potential payout
- $5.56K
- Potential profit
- $38.89
- User PnL
- $0
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $653.8
- Potential payout
- $5.03K
- Potential profit
- $4.38K
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$3.84K
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $380.53
- Potential payout
- $4.79K
- Potential profit
- $4.41K
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$838.81
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $179.34
- Potential payout
- $3.99K
- Potential profit
- $3.81K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$99.63
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $2.92K
- Potential payout
- $2.95K
- Potential profit
- $32.45
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$4.93
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $486.11
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $2.21K
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$21.21
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2.26K
- Potential payout
- $2.27K
- Potential profit
- $11.35
- User PnL
- $397.04
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $101.53
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.93K
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$378.43
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$396.1
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $625.62
- Potential payout
- $906.82
- Potential profit
- $281.2
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- -$108.91
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $438.93
- Potential payout
- $836.06
- Potential profit
- $397.13
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $205.91
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $663.73
- Potential profit
- $663.4
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.48
No position
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $608.86
- Potential payout
- $611
- Potential profit
- $2.14
- User PnL
- $56.91
No position
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $377.64
- Potential payout
- $382.81
- Potential profit
- $5.17
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $30.64
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.6
- Potential payout
- $356.13
- Potential profit
- $354.53
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $180.08
- Potential payout
- $343
- Potential profit
- $162.93
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$84.13
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $184.89
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $15.1
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $73.9
No position
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $85.07
- Potential payout
- $85.71
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- User PnL
- $42.21
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $26.29
- Potential payout
- $76.23
- Potential profit
- $49.94
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$18.19
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $17.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $2.7
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $16.5
- Potential profit
- $16.41
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$6.34
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $12.43
- Potential profit
- $11.55
- Multiplier
- 14.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $75.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.44K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.09K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.1K
No position
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.69K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.15K
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.75K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.71K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.7K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.2K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.96K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.38K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.54K
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.28K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.72K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.02K
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.77K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.68K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.33K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.24K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.98K
No position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.41K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.37K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 47% 3.96 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 18.8% 2,700.62 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No 98.2% 9,831.72 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 99.2% 24,436.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 80.8% 19,999.56 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 82.5% 5,000 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 89% 28,650.17 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 58.4% 76.23 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 18.7% 5,555 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes 97% 22 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No 1.4% 26,275.9 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes 4% 18,946.43 shares