Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$20
Polymarket Trader
rgess
0x2c7a1ef8bab307827b76be8e5267d8c05b406875
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.94K
- Realized PnL
- $10.86K
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.19K
- Potential profit
- $12.19K
- User PnL
- -$113.03
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.58K
- Potential profit
- $9.58K
- User PnL
- -$237.6
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.12K
- Potential profit
- $5.12K
- User PnL
- -$1.06K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.84K
- Potential profit
- $3.84K
- User PnL
- -$136.34
Yes position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.83K
- Potential profit
- $3.83K
- User PnL
- -$565.46
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.01K
- Potential profit
- $3.01K
- User PnL
- -$54.04
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $2.86K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- User PnL
- -$466.39
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.88K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- User PnL
- -$632.15
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.02K
- User PnL
- -$80.59
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.77K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- User PnL
- -$102.13
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- User PnL
- -$181.5
Yes position
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $1.71K
- User PnL
- -$58.25
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$67.85
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- User PnL
- -$14.87
Yes position
Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$51.71
Yes position
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$78.57
Yes position
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$89.18
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$71.4
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $75.39
- Potential payout
- $886.99
- Potential profit
- $811.6
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$31.04
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $700
- User PnL
- -$105
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.98K
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $618.97
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $521.38
Yes position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $300.17
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $229.98
Yes position
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.2
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.52
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.55
No position
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.13
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4
Yes position
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.47
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.29
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.67
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.91
No position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.61
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23.91
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$24.58
Yes position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Multiplier
- 38.46x
- User PnL
- -$26.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Yes 18.5% 15 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 47.9% 300 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 1.7% 0.26 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 62% 1,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 61% 1,649.97 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes 38% 20 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes 38% 30.38 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Yes 38% 405.39 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes 37.7% 2,073.14 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes 62.8% 1,009.51 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes 63.4% 500 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes 59% 563.63 shares