No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.6%
- Current value
- $5.42
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $34.58
- Multiplier
- 7.38x
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Polymarket Trader
sldwa
0x2da351390a6aff272bceef461bc543b965563895
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.71
- Realized PnL
- $69.37
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $1.29
- Potential payout
- $5.28
- Potential profit
- $3.99
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.95x
- User PnL
- $63.92
No position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.6
Yes position
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.79
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- $0
LG Twins position
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Filippo Romano position
Cervia: Filippo Romano vs Enrico Dalla Valle
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Yes 61% 48 shares
- Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 38.8% 1,781.4 shares
- Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 39.3% 8.6 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 40% 126 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 41.1% 126 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Yes 15% 292 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Yes 25% 49 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes 85% 200 shares
- Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?No 21.9% 58 shares
- Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?No 18.7% 145 shares
- Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?No 28.2% 497 shares
- Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Yes 59% 93 shares