No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $899.23
- Potential payout
- $921.34
- Potential profit
- $22.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.69
Polymarket Trader
Barda
0x2de8ceaacf0bd664b5fdb65fb8d3ef0e3c3f3035
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $904.43
- Realized PnL
- $1.35K
- Win rate
- 90.9%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $5.21
- Potential payout
- $10.01
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $618.93
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $411.54
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.44
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.17
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.61
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.5
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.23
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.1
No position
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.4% 11,361 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 99.7% 22 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 99.7% 11,180 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 99.8% 5,714.24 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 99.7% 11,100 shares
- Netanyahu out by March 31?No 99.2% 80 shares
- Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?No 69% 10.01 shares
- Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No 96.7% 50.07 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 98.1% 400 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 96% 10,000 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?Yes 1.9% 100 shares