Polymarket Trader

Miguel262144

0x2df5ad0f2612c7bcf5f87543e126e0aa351051ac

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $702.42
Realized PnL: $3.84K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $127.61
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$724.52

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $631.14
Potential profit: $630.83
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$64.31

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.54
Potential payout: $440.08
Potential profit: $438.54
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $53.6
Potential payout: $345.79
Potential profit: $292.19
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$115.2

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $178.76
Potential payout: $267
Potential profit: $88.24
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$13.42

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.8%
Current value: $87.17
Potential payout: $213.71
Potential profit: $126.54
Multiplier: 2.45x
User PnL: -$27.83

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.9%
Current value: $33.97
Potential payout: $201.59
Potential profit: $167.62
Multiplier: 5.93x
User PnL: -$48.03

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.1%
Current value: $22.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $77.95
Multiplier: 4.54x
User PnL: -$1.15

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $57.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $42.5
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $21.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $78.5
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $40.59
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $25.41
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$1.65

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $60.95
Potential profit: $60.25
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$1.74

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $58.11
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $54.47
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $5.9
Potential payout: $51.32
Potential profit: $45.42
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$16.1

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $25.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $24.25
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$12.25

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $8.32
Potential payout: $41.5
Potential profit: $33.18
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $39.29
Potential profit: $34.38
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$6.09

Los Angeles Dodgers position

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$14.74

Atlanta Braves position

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $9.6
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: -$0.4

Chicago Cubs position

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $19
Potential profit: $8.17
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $9.23
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?

Ends Jul 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.98

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $518.7

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.52

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.48

Yes position

Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $177.75

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.81

Yes position

Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.71

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.81

No position

Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.9

No position

Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.02

Yes position

Will either candidate concede in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.2

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.13

Yes position

Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.5

No position

Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $109.74

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.8

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.91

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.79

Yes position

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.79

No position

Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.57

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.61

No position

Maduro out in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.68

No position

Maduro out before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.29

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $73.78

Yes position

Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vote?

Ends Feb 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.27

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 64% 55 shares
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 64% 11 shares
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

No 71% 11 shares
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

No 66% 11 shares
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins 52% 9 shares
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels 41% 0.9 shares
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers 67% 22 shares
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners 57% 11 shares
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics

Miami Marlins 48% 9 shares
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants 56% 11 shares
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers 54% 22 shares
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

Detroit Tigers 51% 9 shares