0x0820-3

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $299.1
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $11.1

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

Implied probability: 24.9%
Current value: $72.14
Potential payout: $289.7
Potential profit: $217.56
Multiplier: 4.02x
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $3.55
Potential payout: $273
Potential profit: $269.45
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$12.95

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

Implied probability: 90.2%
Current value: $237.23
Potential payout: $263
Potential profit: $25.77
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$6.31

Yes position

Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $15.86
Potential payout: $244
Potential profit: $228.14
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $196.67
Potential payout: $231.38
Potential profit: $34.71
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$6.19

Yes position

Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $206
Potential profit: $205.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $65.87
Potential payout: $202.98
Potential profit: $137.12
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$38.87

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $197
Potential profit: $195.52
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $174.43
Potential payout: $195
Potential profit: $20.57
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$9.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $14.4
Potential payout: $192
Potential profit: $177.6
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $7.52
Potential payout: $188
Potential profit: $180.48
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$14.96

Yes position

Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $17.47
Potential payout: $183.85
Potential profit: $166.38
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$10.11

Yes position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $178.11
Potential profit: $178.02
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $174.48
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$27.48

No position

Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $162.35
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $168.8
Potential payout: $169.99
Potential profit: $1.19
User PnL: $6.63

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $37.36
Potential payout: $149.46
Potential profit: $112.09
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $141.88
Potential profit: $137.05
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$10.8

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $128.01
Potential payout: $133
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.93

Yes position

ByteDance IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $99.23
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$3.67

Yes position

Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $101
Potential profit: $99.08
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: $1.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.37K

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $847.28

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $740.16

Yes position

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $593.76

Yes position

Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $493.51

Yes position

Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $480.08

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $413.08

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.12

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.64

Yes position

Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $392.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $335.56

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $317.77

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $308.5

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $260.86

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $254.28

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 90.6%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $247.35

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $244.29

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.76

Yes position

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $213.2

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.3%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $204.11

No position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.35

Yes position

Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $175.89

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $173.69

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?