No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $30.21
- Potential payout
- $41.95
- Potential profit
- $11.75
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Polymarket Trader
MarcellusRex
0x2e318c0957e1add47a97a2ea4adc3ba30bc463db
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $92.18
- Realized PnL
- -$1.34
- Win rate
- 78.6%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $20.13
- Potential payout
- $25.97
- Potential profit
- $5.84
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $14.03
- Potential payout
- $15.01
- Potential profit
- $0.98
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $9.3
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
N
No position
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $7.94
- Potential profit
- $2.98
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $6.94
- Potential profit
- $1.98
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $6.76
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $6.41
- Potential profit
- $1.44
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.08
- Potential profit
- $3.08
- User PnL
- -$2.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
Yes position
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 59.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $0.22
N
No position
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
Yes position
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$10.04
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 59.2% 8.81 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 93% 4.02 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?Yes 86% 9.3 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 72% 6.94 shares
- Will England win on 2026-07-01?Yes 78% 6.41 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-30?Yes 77% 6.49 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?Yes 74% 6.76 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-30?Yes 77% 6.49 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Yes 36% 11.9 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Yes 42% 11.9 shares
- Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No 63% 7.94 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 79% 25.32 shares