No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $221.15
- Potential payout
- $221.48
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- User PnL
- $2.11
Polymarket Trader
g4z3ll3
0x2fa801da750904fc348ccb9315a0b892377d4359
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $922.11
- Realized PnL
- $601.29
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $147.87
- Potential payout
- $147.94
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $2.82
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $6.21
- Potential payout
- $146.23
- Potential profit
- $140.01
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $131.18
- Potential profit
- $129.93
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $97.33
- Potential payout
- $111.24
- Potential profit
- $13.9
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.91
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $97.15
- Potential payout
- $103.9
- Potential profit
- $6.75
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $5.55
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $6.29
- Potential payout
- $94.52
- Potential profit
- $88.23
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $76.9
- Potential profit
- $76.24
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $41.31
- Potential payout
- $74.43
- Potential profit
- $33.12
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$1.43
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Current value
- $6.76
- Potential payout
- $70.08
- Potential profit
- $63.32
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.42
- Potential payout
- $65.08
- Potential profit
- $64.66
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $3.4
- Potential payout
- $64.82
- Potential profit
- $61.42
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $14.68
- Potential payout
- $57.58
- Potential profit
- $42.9
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $2.72
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $52.65
- Potential payout
- $52.67
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $6.42
- Potential payout
- $52.39
- Potential profit
- $45.98
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $35.32
- Potential payout
- $52.33
- Potential profit
- $17.01
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$1.48
Yes position
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $51.97
- Potential profit
- $51.24
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $2.15
- Potential payout
- $51.88
- Potential profit
- $49.73
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $41
- Potential payout
- $48.52
- Potential profit
- $7.52
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $27.88
- Potential payout
- $46.09
- Potential profit
- $18.21
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $37.45
- Potential payout
- $41.85
- Potential profit
- $4.39
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.01
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $34.55
- Potential payout
- $41.37
- Potential profit
- $6.83
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.28
- Potential profit
- $41.28
- User PnL
- -$1.41
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $39.49
- Potential payout
- $39.51
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.45
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.13
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.27
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.06
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.83
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.98
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.89
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.04
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.78
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.85
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.05
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.05
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.02
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.09
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.73
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 9.2% 5.91 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 17.2% 6.18 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 79.9% 5.4 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Yes 16.2% 5.28 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 75.4% 5 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No 99.9% 9.7 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No 41.9% 5.62 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 42% 7.12 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 34% 38.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 66% 4.9 shares
- Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Yes 66% 5.38 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 54% 5.44 shares