Polymarket Trader

yamauris

0x300d4bc7083175a413498a2ac330db13ae07ab3d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $380.06
Realized PnL: $1.13K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $28.43
Potential payout: $3.79K
Potential profit: $3.76K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$13.26

Yes position

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $47.03
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$12.38

Yes position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $640.24
Potential profit: $632.24
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$30

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $507.94
Potential profit: $507.94
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.6%
Current value: $65.73
Potential payout: $305
Potential profit: $239.27
Multiplier: 4.64x
User PnL: $15.71

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $248.96
Potential profit: $248.96
User PnL: -$13.89

Yes position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $53
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $147
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $39.3
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $160.68
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $16.03
Potential payout: $128.2
Potential profit: $112.17
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$33.97

Yes position

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $15.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $84.5
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$9.5

No position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.5
Potential profit: $87.5
User PnL: -$43.75

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $8.92
Potential payout: $84.96
Potential profit: $76.04
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$33.56

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $21.19
Potential payout: $79.97
Potential profit: $58.78
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$18.79

Yes position

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $12.5

No position

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$12.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $33.77
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$3.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $136.69

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $76.64

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $72.73

Yes position

Will László Krasznahorkai win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.84

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.5

Yes position

Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.98

Yes position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.52

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.35

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $34

Yes position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.81

No position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.24

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.61

Yes position

Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.09

No position

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.56

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $27.98

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $27.82

Yes position

Another France debt downgrade by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.48

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.03

No position

Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.94

No position

Evo Morales arrested by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Up 44% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Down 50% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Down 50% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Up 50% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Up 45% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Down 54% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Down 56% 10 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Up 48% 10 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Up 49% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Down 51% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Up 34% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Down 67% 20 shares