No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $14.63K
- Potential payout
- $17.73K
- Potential profit
- $3.1K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $660.62
Polymarket Trader
Orion96
0x3069c1002bd0bb6aec054c7a27722919df95f8ef
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $38.01K
- Realized PnL
- $30.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $4.57K
- Potential payout
- $5.22K
- Potential profit
- $652.67
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $160.17
Yes position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $2.83K
- Potential payout
- $5.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.27K
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $248.57
Yes position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $185.05
- Potential payout
- $4.57K
- Potential profit
- $4.38K
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$208.85
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $6.52
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $4.34K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.99K
Yes position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $2.34K
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $384.99
No position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $2.37K
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $728.76
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $381.25
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $120.29
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.78K
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$1.88K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $2.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.57K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$345.93
Yes position
Will Trump say "Mr. Speaker" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.61K
- Potential profit
- $2.61K
- User PnL
- -$2.31K
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $1.71K
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $387.83
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$37.59
Yes position
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $57.03
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.81K
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$50.97
No position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- User PnL
- -$395
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.7K
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $5.97
- User PnL
- $198.58
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- User PnL
- -$457.05
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $576.87
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$73.11
Yes position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $1.44K
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $108.46
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $40.99
No position
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.43K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $68.24
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $175.9
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- User PnL
- -$1K
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $778.57
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $650
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$221.43
Yes position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$500
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.8%
- Current value
- $972.22
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $161.56
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$27.78
No position
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $50.77
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $62.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.97K
Yes position
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3K
Yes position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $2.67K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
No position
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.6%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $981.77
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $877.39
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $870.77
No position
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $858.94
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $813.93
No position
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $801.46
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $798.44
Yes position
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $763.34
No position
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $757.84
No position
[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?
Ends Nov 8, 2022- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $756.58
No position
Gold missing from Fort Knox?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $728.28
No position
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $711.03
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $695.15
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 70% 238 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 58.8% 372.92 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 26.3% 4,090.46 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 74% 2,027.03 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 24.4% 4,090.46 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 70% 372.93 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 24.8% 4,685.79 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 74% 675.67 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 75% 400.13 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 97.2% 1,176.47 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 97% 4,203.73 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 65% 307.69 shares