Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.32K
- Potential profit
- $5.32K
- User PnL
- -$140.36
Polymarket Trader
randomWalkingShrimp
0x30d1c420d1abde9442d6762dd6f6d5f92df04525
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.55K
- Realized PnL
- $23.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $4.32K
- Potential payout
- $4.55K
- Potential profit
- $232.2
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $218.16
No position
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $4.32K
- Potential payout
- $4.33K
- Potential profit
- $15.17
- User PnL
- $289.04
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $4.14K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $29.15
- User PnL
- $129.3
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.7K
- User PnL
- -$487.73
No position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
Yes position
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- User PnL
- -$9.15
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $2.5K
- Potential payout
- $2.51K
- Potential profit
- $8.78
- User PnL
- $69.32
No position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $2.08K
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $238.03
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$20.04
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $2.03K
- Potential payout
- $2.25K
- Potential profit
- $225.21
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $173.27
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $1.69K
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $297.58
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $357.4
No position
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $1.93K
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $10.65
- User PnL
- $53.82
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- User PnL
- -$529.7
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $627.25
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$149.7
No position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.55K
- Potential profit
- $411.36
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $134.27
Yes position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$160.93
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $215.8
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $24.74
No position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $1.13K
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $17.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $42.31
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $10.4
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$22.94
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $667.73
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $418.01
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$84.64
Yes position
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$36.01
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$15.12
No position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $975.15
- Potential payout
- $986
- Potential profit
- $10.85
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $28.41
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $407.98
- Potential payout
- $959.95
- Potential profit
- $551.97
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $23.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.05K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55K
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97K
Yes position
TikTok banned in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
Yes position
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline?
Ends Jul 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $943.09
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $727.51
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $703.91
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $681.47
No position
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $646.88
Yes position
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?
Ends Aug 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $561.51
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $560.04
No position
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $548.92
Yes position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $519.68
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $519
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $515.74
No position
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.36
Yes position
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484.6
Yes position
Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $474.28
No position
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.39
No position
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $442.6
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $437.09
No position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $412.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x China tariff agreement by June 30?No 96.8% 812.78 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?No 99% 5.05 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 96.8% 113.09 shares
- US x China tariff agreement by June 30?No 97.6% 10 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96.2% 100 shares
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026?No 98.1% 59 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 97.2% 46.93 shares
- Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?No 98.4% 16.5 shares
- US x China tariff agreement by June 30?No 96.6% 1,113.24 shares
- Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?No 98.4% 18.8 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 97.5% 31.25 shares
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?Yes 17% 29.51 shares