RKR127

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $60.94
Potential payout: $8.13K
Potential profit: $8.06K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$69.06

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $73.2
Potential payout: $6.97K
Potential profit: $6.9K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$236.79

Yes position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $298.83
Potential payout: $2.38K
Potential profit: $2.08K
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $98.83

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $255
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $745
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $876.45
Potential profit: $876.45
User PnL: -$220

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $363.3
Potential payout: $835.18
Potential profit: $471.88
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$136.69

No position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $817.08
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $16.25
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $17.08

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $133.23
Potential payout: $621.12
Potential profit: $487.89
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $33.23

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 37.9%
Current value: $230.88
Potential payout: $609.98
Potential profit: $379.1
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: -$105.13

No position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $424.97
Potential payout: $425.61
Potential profit: $0.64
User PnL: $24.97

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $74.42
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $310.19
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: -$25.58

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $292.5
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $20
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $301.07
Potential payout: $304.88
Potential profit: $3.81
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.07

No position

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $24.83
Potential payout: $292.16
Potential profit: $267.33
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$45.11

No position

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $199.7
Potential payout: $201.21
Potential profit: $1.51
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $183.93
Potential profit: $183.93
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $176.87
Potential payout: $178.57
Potential profit: $1.7
User PnL: $76.88

Yes position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.3
Potential profit: $148.3
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.69
Potential profit: $143.69
User PnL: -$110

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $101.51
Potential payout: $131.06
Potential profit: $29.55
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.53
Potential profit: $125.53
User PnL: -$97

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $123.46
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.3%
Current value: $23.06
Potential payout: $113.9
Potential profit: $90.83
Multiplier: 4.94x
User PnL: -$76.94

No position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $99.46
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $9.24
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.54

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Fed rate hike in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.81

Yes position

Will Trump's inaugural address be 20 minutes or more?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.03

Yes position

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.69

Yes position

Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.72

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.58

Yes position

Fed rate cut in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.15

Yes position

Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.11

No position

Ethereum all time high by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.87

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.87

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.09

No position

Will Mark Carney lose his seat?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.08

No position

Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.56

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.69

No position

Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.46

Yes position

Will Biden say "democracy" 4 or more times during farewell address?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.25

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.45

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.34

No position

Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.48

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.9

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.86

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?