No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $404.95
- Potential payout
- $430.57
- Potential profit
- $25.62
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $4.95
Polymarket Trader
blacksky - 2869
0x321fd4891761b20d6c75ae2f44edcffa5f50082b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $802.18
- Realized PnL
- $206.75
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $158.99
- Potential payout
- $205.14
- Potential profit
- $46.16
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $117.85
- Potential payout
- $137.84
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.15
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $58.43
- Potential payout
- $69.15
- Potential profit
- $10.72
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.42
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.7%
- Current value
- $61.96
- Potential payout
- $67.61
- Potential profit
- $5.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.48
Yes position
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.47
- Potential profit
- $51.47
- User PnL
- -$35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
Ends Nov 20, 2020- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.6
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.82
Yes position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.77
Yes position
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.24
Yes position
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.28
No position
Will Powell say "Trump" during speech on October 14?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.35
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $9.3
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.84
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08
No position
Another Canada election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.05
Yes position
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
Yes position
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
No position
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.57
No position
Will Trump visit Gaza by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.66
Yes position
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
N
No position
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No 79% 31.65 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 84% 29.62 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No 77.7% 69.47 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 95.7% 50.42 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No 76.9% 104.03 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 98.6% 50 shares
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?No 94.3% 39.72 shares
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?No 95.7% 39.72 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 86% 91.86 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 97.4% 83.59 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 9% 400 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 94.4% 50.42 shares