No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $2.5K
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $189.78
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$23.61
Polymarket Trader
ynsider
@thezis_io
0x3258bbc84bca339b3135e9a65b3b42c51efe5650
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.56K
- Realized PnL
- $1.85K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $2.39K
- Potential payout
- $2.52K
- Potential profit
- $132.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$12.39
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.6K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $7.22
- User PnL
- -$3.61
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $127.02
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.69
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $127.84
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$237.42
Yes position
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $184.05
- Potential payout
- $549.4
- Potential profit
- $365.35
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$7.56
Yes position
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $233.01
- Potential payout
- $325.89
- Potential profit
- $92.88
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.89
Yes position
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $117.41
- Potential payout
- $200.7
- Potential profit
- $83.29
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Yes position
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $153.02
- Potential payout
- $181.09
- Potential profit
- $28.07
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$10.31
Yes position
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $49.47
- Potential payout
- $53.19
- Potential profit
- $3.72
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
No position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $1.47
- Potential payout
- $1.52
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $437.25
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.03
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.7
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.27
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.2
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.49
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.95
No position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.09
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.49
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.17
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.78
No position
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.25
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.18
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.01
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.95
No position
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.1
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.84
No position
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.75
No position
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.49
No position
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.56
No position
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.16
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.28
No position
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.16
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?No 97.5% 20.53 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No 52.8% 691.62 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 76% 2,141.23 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No 96% 100 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No 96% 45.5 shares
- Netanyahu out by March 31?No 95.5% 26.1 shares
- Netanyahu out by March 31?No 95.2% 209.86 shares
- Netanyahu out by March 31?No 94.3% 5.12 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 98.8% 200.45 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 98.8% 202.63 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 98.8% 202.63 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 98.8% 202.63 shares