Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $1.66K
- Potential payout
- $35K
- Potential profit
- $33.34K
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.16K
Polymarket Trader
Harvey-Dent
0x327c3e4c72957048dfb6d728bd40a9d4721f86ef
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.74K
- Realized PnL
- $1.89K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.58K
- Potential profit
- $4.58K
- User PnL
- -$183.18
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$345.05
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $79
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$53
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $599.98
- Potential profit
- $599.98
- User PnL
- -$118.71
Yes position
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.74
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- User PnL
- -$364.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $488.56
Yes position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $270.79
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.84
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.92
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $88.39
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.78
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $72.56
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.5
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.2
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.33
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.87
No position
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.67
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.29
No position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.89
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.96
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.67
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.14
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.6% 100 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.6% 730 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.6% 1,170 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.4% 1,250.01 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.9% 201.4 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 7% 717.02 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 7% 49.4 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.2% 183.41 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.3% 2,000 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 7% 1,450.61 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 7% 1,500 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 7% 2,000 shares