No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $42.72K
- Potential payout
- $45.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.61K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.13K
Polymarket Trader
apmt
0x328dc4b82869856f3e1a1eae904e67957641f7a9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $109.94K
- Realized PnL
- $59.22K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $16.75K
- Potential payout
- $20.55K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $199.8
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $16.67K
- Potential payout
- $16.9K
- Potential profit
- $228.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.83K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $1.39K
- Potential payout
- $16.4K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$983.21
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $4.08K
- Potential payout
- $8.76K
- Potential profit
- $4.69K
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$899.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $6.67K
- Potential payout
- $7.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $404.5
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $5.9K
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $766.7
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $118.43
No position
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $4.49K
- Potential payout
- $4.53K
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- User PnL
- $504.49
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $4.28K
- Potential profit
- $2.31K
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- -$94.1
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $2.95K
- Potential payout
- $3.16K
- Potential profit
- $205.33
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $315.71
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $3.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$43.25
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $2.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$65.91
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $2.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$406.48
No position
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$462.26
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- User PnL
- -$157.34
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $645
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $355
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $133.69
No position
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $974
- Potential profit
- $974
- User PnL
- -$58.44
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $638.26
- Potential payout
- $813.07
- Potential profit
- $174.81
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$4.67
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $430.87
- Potential payout
- $492.99
- Potential profit
- $62.12
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $43.38
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.31K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.4K
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.12K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.47K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $936.85
Yes position
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $908.3
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $865.15
No position
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $826.35
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $730.04
No position
Weed rescheduled in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $664.49
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $605
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $564.55
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $549.51
Yes position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $534.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 41% 2,500.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 51.1% 1,000 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 88% 500 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 50% 1,000 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 47.6% 1,032.27 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 81% 1,027.34 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 54% 710.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 10% 2,500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 16% 2,350 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 15% 10 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 58% 5,230 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 15% 1,634.86 shares