Polymarket Trader

Arpadex

0x329da08a8e3d157393cf1c423716fa413e075a92

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $105.31
Realized PnL: $806.47
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $1.93K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will Ghana score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.86
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.9K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will Jordan score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.85K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Australia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.76

Yes position

Will Qatar score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.82
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.82

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Will Iraq score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Egypt score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.66

Yes position

Will a player representing Paraguay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will Senegal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.37
Potential payout: $963.02
Potential profit: $959.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.81
Potential payout: $951.32
Potential profit: $947.52
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Paraguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $895.88
Potential profit: $895.43
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $17.19
Potential payout: $859.74
Potential profit: $842.54
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: $14.62

Yes position

Will a player representing Ecuador be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.27
Potential payout: $847.25
Potential profit: $845.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Croatia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $7.28
Potential payout: $727.78
Potential profit: $720.5
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $5.82

Yes position

Will Algeria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $551.4
Potential profit: $551.13
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $499.28
Potential profit: $498.03
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $450.25
Potential profit: $448.44
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $8.47
Potential payout: $434.44
Potential profit: $425.97
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $18.17
Potential payout: $432.68
Potential profit: $414.51
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $30
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $370
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Lennart Karl win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $398.79
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$14.8

Yes position

Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $389.36
Potential profit: $388.19
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.84

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.01

Manchester City FC position

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.79

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.5

Yes position

Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.69

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.8

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.95

Muchova position

Brisbane International: Karolina Muchova vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.25

No position

Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.48

Yes position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: $13.83

Over position

Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.45

Yes position

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.79

No position

Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $11.21

FaZe position

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

No position

Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

No position

Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.89

Yes position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 41.4%
Multiplier: 2.42x
User PnL: $10.35

No position

Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Yes position

Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 6.9%
Multiplier: 14.60x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $10

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?

Made 76% 23.68 shares
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

No 86.3% 61.02 shares
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 15.7% 45 shares
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 84% 6.25 shares
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

No 41% 5 shares
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 58% 5 shares
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 29% 61.97 shares
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?

Yes 30% 14.86 shares
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 67% 99.99 shares
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 34% 12 shares
Will a player representing Paraguay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.1% 19.43 shares
Will Saudi Arabia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.2% 25.89 shares