0x3314241c37A296e9AeCe7E7DFB5898652b4aa8c7-1767968276778

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $1.97K
Potential payout: $16.74K
Potential profit: $14.77K
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $266.66

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $591.35
Potential payout: $9.62K
Potential profit: $9.02K
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $91.36

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $462.29
Potential payout: $7.52K
Potential profit: $7.05K
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$237.69

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $668.39
Potential payout: $5.33K
Potential profit: $4.66K
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $68.4

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $751.45
Potential payout: $4.07K
Potential profit: $3.32K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $51.46

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $480.36
Potential payout: $3.52K
Potential profit: $3.04K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$119.64

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $989.69
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $239.74
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$10.31

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $107.64
Potential payout: $694.44
Potential profit: $586.81
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$392.36

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.4%
Current value: $473.1
Potential payout: $541.31
Potential profit: $68.2
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$26.9

No position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $512.33
Potential payout: $517.77
Potential profit: $5.44
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $12.33

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $279.63
Potential payout: $370.37
Potential profit: $90.74
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$20.37

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.6%
Current value: $293.95
Potential payout: $328.25
Potential profit: $34.3
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$6.05

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $199
Potential payout: $241.21
Potential profit: $42.21
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.8%
Current value: $177.72
Potential payout: $228.58
Potential profit: $50.86
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$22.28

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $196.41
Potential payout: $227.07
Potential profit: $30.65
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$3.59

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $198.41
Potential payout: $212.2
Potential profit: $13.79
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$1.59

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $194.47
Potential payout: $211.61
Potential profit: $17.14
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$5.53

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $199.54
Potential payout: $211.16
Potential profit: $11.61
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $201.05
Potential payout: $210.53
Potential profit: $9.47
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $50.84
Potential payout: $191.84
Potential profit: $141
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$49.16

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $102.38
Potential payout: $158.73
Potential profit: $56.35
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $2.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $986.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $707.46

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $621.89

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $524.23

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $490.95

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $435.16

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $358.07

Yes position

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $351.86

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.39

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.35

No position

US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.9

No position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.17

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $259.4

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $252.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.8

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $215.24

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.82

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.86

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.07

No position

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.63

No position

Will Trump say "Third term" in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET