Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.2
Polymarket Trader
calm.rabbit
0x33db47152223a9b30a1891902402ad7e3485417a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.57K
- Realized PnL
- $17.65K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- User PnL
- -$30.1
No position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $327.02
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$773.04
Yes position
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $20.97
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- $8.42
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $13.17
- Potential payout
- $975.86
- Potential profit
- $962.69
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$32.54
No position
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $39.61
- Potential payout
- $954.54
- Potential profit
- $914.92
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$97.46
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $856.66
- Potential payout
- $878.17
- Potential profit
- $21.52
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $39.69
Yes position
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $15.31
- Potential payout
- $784.98
- Potential profit
- $769.67
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$61.72
Yes position
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.69
- Potential payout
- $676.18
- Potential profit
- $674.49
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $541.75
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$151.77
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $244.06
- Potential payout
- $524.87
- Potential profit
- $280.81
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $3.72
Yes position
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.1%
- Current value
- $115.59
- Potential payout
- $523.01
- Potential profit
- $407.42
- Multiplier
- 4.52x
- User PnL
- $38.8
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $273.34
- Potential payout
- $510.92
- Potential profit
- $237.58
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $6.59
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.24
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$24.25
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $18.5
- Potential payout
- $493.45
- Potential profit
- $474.95
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$178.54
OpenAI position
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $89.76
- Potential payout
- $437.84
- Potential profit
- $348.08
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$21.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $9.71
- Potential payout
- $431.72
- Potential profit
- $422.01
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$24.82
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $5.52
- Potential payout
- $424.47
- Potential profit
- $418.95
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$11.46
Yes position
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $129.35
- Potential payout
- $375.02
- Potential profit
- $245.68
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $95.59
No position
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $366.63
- Potential profit
- $366.63
- User PnL
- -$84.32
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $9.15
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $290.85
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $137.99
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $161.99
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $256.66
- Potential payout
- $296.72
- Potential profit
- $40.06
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $77.46
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $218.94
- Potential profit
- $218.94
- User PnL
- -$49.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
No position
Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $913.65
Yes position
Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $889.79
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $820.99
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $656.29
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $632.13
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $606.25
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $591.37
Yes position
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $547.99
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $509.49
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $486.08
Yes position
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $482.35
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.24
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $451.31
No position
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $439.08
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $438.07
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $430.02
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $405.38
Yes position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $405.02
No position
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $399.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?Yes 27.1% 40 shares
- Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?Yes 39% 40 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Yes 43.6% 100 shares
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No 76% 174.44 shares
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No 75% 30.38 shares
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 72% 33 shares
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 70% 500 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No 64% 229.67 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No 53% 186.47 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No 70% 309.43 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?No 37.5% 150 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?No 63% 144.36 shares