No position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $51.09
- Potential payout
- $54.35
- Potential profit
- $3.26
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.09
Polymarket Trader
Smaragda
0x340082e245c8a60a6eb0c344fd27a8d639290e6b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $51.09
- Realized PnL
- $62.66
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.61
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.87
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.84
Yes position
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.32
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.47
Yes position
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.41
Yes position
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?
Ends Jan 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Trump transgender sports ban?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.3
80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 90% 83.09 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 95% 136.74 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 86% 83.09 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes 98.9% 72.72 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes 94.9% 72.72 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 77% 129.87 shares
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?No 92% 54.35 shares
- Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?80k 82.6% 24.65 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes 2.8% 135.29 shares
- Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes 99.9% 25.43 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes 94.9% 48.47 shares
- Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes 90.4% 25.44 shares