0x34a9...4cfd

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $63.53
Potential payout: $847.07
Potential profit: $783.54
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$11.58

Yes position

Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $585.4
Potential profit: $582.18
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.22

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $196.76
Potential payout: $524.7
Potential profit: $327.94
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$77.51

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $15.12
Potential payout: $414.25
Potential profit: $399.13
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$1.45

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $374.99
Potential profit: $374.8
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.31

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $5.52
Potential payout: $356.25
Potential profit: $350.73
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $35.19
Potential payout: $281.5
Potential profit: $246.31
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $9.78

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $212.26
Potential payout: $277.47
Potential profit: $65.21
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $44.34

No position

Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $223.7
Potential payout: $238.61
Potential profit: $14.91
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $28.04

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $27.88
Potential payout: $232.3
Potential profit: $204.42
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$16.26

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $204.48
Potential payout: $209.83
Potential profit: $5.35
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.57

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $188.77
Potential payout: $188.86
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will Decibel launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $181.8
Potential profit: $181.16
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1.36

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $148.92
Potential profit: $148.85
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$60.44

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $123.63
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $5.36
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $119.64
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $123.44
Potential profit: $122.51
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.82

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $114.97
Potential profit: $113.36
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 38.4%
Current value: $44.05
Potential payout: $114.72
Potential profit: $70.67
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $9.41

No position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $108.51
Potential payout: $112.33
Potential profit: $3.82
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $72.31
Potential payout: $108.74
Potential profit: $36.43
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $22.29

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $103.85
Potential payout: $105.7
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.86

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $102.57
Potential payout: $103.24
Potential profit: $0.67
User PnL: $4.65

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $101.98
Potential payout: $102.34
Potential profit: $0.36
User PnL: $2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $901.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.02

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $400

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $372.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $359.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $354.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $213.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET