sand1

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $766.65
Potential payout: $799.84
Potential profit: $33.19
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $14.82

No position

Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $529.42
Potential profit: $529.42
User PnL: -$244.14

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $242
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $158
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $140.2

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$145.49

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.55
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$283.76

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 25?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $268.18
Potential profit: $268.18
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $233.01
Potential profit: $233.01
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 26?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $220
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $203.22
Potential profit: $203.22
User PnL: -$11.51

No position

Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $189.83
Potential payout: $196
Potential profit: $6.17
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $191.23
Potential profit: $191.23
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.82
Potential profit: $173.82
User PnL: -$114.98

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $145.95
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $4.05
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$125.31

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.56
Potential payout: $124.93
Potential profit: $122.37
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.56
Potential profit: $99.56
User PnL: -$22.9

Yes position

Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.5
Potential profit: $83.5
User PnL: -$14.3

Yes position

Will any other model be the best AI model on April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.68
Potential profit: $80.68
User PnL: -$0.97

No position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.42
Potential profit: $80.42
User PnL: -$37.32

Yes position

Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.99
Potential profit: $69.99
User PnL: -$6.3

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $3.49
Potential payout: $69.81
Potential profit: $66.32
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$12.37

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.43
Potential profit: $61.43
User PnL: -$0.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Nepali Congress win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $417.17

No position

Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 30 and 39 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $267.84

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.97

Yes position

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.48

No position

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $111.45

Yes position

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $103.34

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $98.5

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.09

No position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $71.49

Yes position

Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the second-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $55.76

Yes position

Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the third-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.93

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.1

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50.83

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46

No position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.45

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.4

No position

Will Nepali Congress win the third-most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.84

Yes position

Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.76

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.8

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, 2026?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.87

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.98

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?