Polymarket Trader

Olcan

0x355e5ae20cc1a3a2164f818e4bac8d22dd72a038

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $19.91K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $2.4K
Potential payout: $3.56K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $46.47

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.66K
Potential payout: $3.3K
Potential profit: $643.49
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $68.24

No position

Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $2.03K
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $189.91
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$25.53

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $548.77
Potential payout: $2.12K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: -$624.79

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $1.75K
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $285.37
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $663.87

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $152
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $155.74

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $96.83
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $147.73

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $102.9
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $335.45

Yes position

Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $149.26
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$155.4

No position

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55%
Current value: $564.15
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $461.58
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $54.28

No position

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.6%
Current value: $515.05
Potential payout: $961.81
Potential profit: $446.76
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $116.79

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $892.43
Potential payout: $954.47
Potential profit: $62.04
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $164.94

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $612.01
Potential payout: $900.01
Potential profit: $288
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$79

No position

Obama federally charged before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $780.08
Potential payout: $821.14
Potential profit: $41.06
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $222.82

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $758.29
Potential payout: $798.2
Potential profit: $39.91
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $85.66

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $346.75
Potential payout: $779.22
Potential profit: $432.47
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $98.84
Potential payout: $718.86
Potential profit: $620.02
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$13.29

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $14.51
Potential payout: $677.82
Potential profit: $663.31
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $10.06

No position

Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $453.65
Potential payout: $593.01
Potential profit: $139.36
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $11.65

No position

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $426.48
Potential payout: $516.94
Potential profit: $90.47
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $13.58

No position

Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $515.7
Potential profit: $515.7
User PnL: -$25.8

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $407.45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $92.55
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $12.45

No position

Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $182.07
Potential payout: $466.84
Potential profit: $284.77
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$48.94

No position

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $297
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $153
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 86.3% 14.58 shares
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 75% 20 shares
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Yes 88% 8.33 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 24% 0.52 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 27% 22 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 52% 6.92 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 51% 5 shares
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Yes 22.9% 22.52 shares
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30?

No 5% 515.7 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 51% 9.6 shares
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

No 75% 50 shares
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

No 72% 50 shares