Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $422.91
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$388.07
Polymarket Trader
APSB4UC
0x35ba0e91efcbe74310746414c50f0c38e26582f9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $493.94
- Realized PnL
- $320.7
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.1%
- Current value
- $62.56
- Potential payout
- $189.28
- Potential profit
- $126.72
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- $32.56
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.9
- Potential profit
- $11.9
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $4.44
- Potential payout
- $10.2
- Potential profit
- $5.77
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $4.03
- Potential payout
- $6.45
- Potential profit
- $2.42
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.69
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.35
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.61
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.43
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.19
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.24
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.02
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.05
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.6%
- Multiplier
- 3.91x
- User PnL
- $0.73
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-07-09?Yes 62% 6.45 shares
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 49% 10.2 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 18% 28.57 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.5% 59.88 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 27.77 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 84% 20.96 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 13% 46.83 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 61% 17.24 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 28% 41.12 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 97.5% 5.31 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 28.8% 27.17 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 22% 86.36 shares