Polymarket Trader

stuartshay

0x35c736c9b7b33457b18544abafd12179a2db60b1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $32.96
Realized PnL: $152.01
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.95
Potential profit: $50.95
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $20.54
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $15.18
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.41
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$4.7

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.61
Potential profit: $28.61
User PnL: -$27.32

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.51
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.73
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $10.77
Potential payout: $17.39
Potential profit: $6.62
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.83
Potential profit: $9.83
User PnL: -$1.18

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $195?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.42
Potential profit: $7.42
User PnL: -$4.38

Yes position

Will NVIDIA reach $216 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.45
Potential profit: $6.45
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $0.96
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Luigi Mangione extradited to New York before 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

No position

Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.27

No position

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.24

Yes position

Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.21

Yes position

Trump transgender executive order on Day 1?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.73

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3?

Ends Jan 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.43

Yes position

Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.68

Yes position

Vivek out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.81

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $190?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.79

Yes position

Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.3

Yes position

Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.91

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Fauci?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.74

Yes position

Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.35

No position

Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

TikTok on the App Store again by Monday?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.81

Yes position

Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.41

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.28

Yes position

Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.26

Yes position

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

No 57.5% 17.39 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Up 46% 8.19 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Up 61% 8.2 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 14% 35.71 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

No 56% 35.71 shares
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 32.9% 60.79 shares
Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Yes 95.5% 28.61 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?

Yes 2% 21.75 shares
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?

Yes 0.2% 1,000 shares
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?

Yes 39.3% 50.95 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?

Yes 16% 21.75 shares
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $195?

Yes 59% 7.42 shares