vectorreasoning

Implied probability: 40.6%
Current value: $243.72
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $356.28
Multiplier: 2.46x
User PnL: -$8.28

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $454.55
User PnL: -$200

Argentina position

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $37.11
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $262.89
Multiplier: 8.08x
User PnL: -$0.39

Under position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $133.42
Potential payout: $251.73
Potential profit: $118.32
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $11.19

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $12.89
Potential payout: $239.99
Potential profit: $227.1
Multiplier: 18.62x
User PnL: -$1.51

Over position

Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210.99
Potential profit: $210.99
User PnL: -$50

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.49
Potential profit: $153.49
User PnL: -$4.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.28
Potential profit: $137.28
User PnL: -$3.72

No position

Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106.13
Potential profit: $106.13
User PnL: -$43.29

Switzerland position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Implied probability: 12.1%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $79.99
Potential profit: $70.3
Multiplier: 8.25x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.4
Potential profit: $70.4
User PnL: -$7.06

No position

Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$21.6

No position

Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.97
Potential profit: $19.97
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

England position

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $903.93

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Implied probability: 75.4%
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $497.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.17

Under position

Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.23

Yes position

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $44.83

No position

Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.18

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.4

No position

Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.32

Yes position

Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET