No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$320
Polymarket Trader
0x3606F455cF588C84453f56E749cd15BCa4f14e08-1760889589657
0x3606f455cf588c84453f56e749cd15bca4f14e08
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.91K
- Realized PnL
- $1.09K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $190.22
- Potential payout
- $951.1
- Potential profit
- $760.88
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$170.89
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $720
- Potential profit
- $720
- User PnL
- -$317.44
No position
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $157.58
- Potential payout
- $656.59
- Potential profit
- $499.01
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$157.39
Yes position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.6%
- Current value
- $467.22
- Potential payout
- $580.04
- Potential profit
- $112.82
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$15.25
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $349.69
- Potential payout
- $431.98
- Potential profit
- $82.29
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $23.43
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $338.62
- Potential payout
- $418.05
- Potential profit
- $79.43
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$17.52
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $4.03
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $225.98
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$15.77
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $145.23
- Potential payout
- $148.88
- Potential profit
- $3.65
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $98.9
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$2.95
No position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $83.5
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2.29
No position
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $88
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $12
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $23.4
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.4%
- Current value
- $13.35
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $86.64
- Multiplier
- 7.49x
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $38.37
- Potential payout
- $79.12
- Potential profit
- $40.75
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$6.63
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $48.01
- Potential payout
- $60.01
- Potential profit
- $12
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $18.3
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51
- Potential profit
- $51
- User PnL
- -$26.36
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.4%
- Current value
- $10.67
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $39.33
- Multiplier
- 4.68x
- User PnL
- -$24.78
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.28
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$3.73
Yes position
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.2%
- Current value
- $28.12
- Potential payout
- $36.93
- Potential profit
- $8.81
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $4.76
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $29.35
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$3.68
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.09
- Potential profit
- $26.09
- User PnL
- -$8.97
Yes position
Will Google say "Anthropic" during earnings call?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$2.28
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.6%
- Current value
- $8.9
- Potential payout
- $10.4
- Potential profit
- $1.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.56
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.03
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.84
No position
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $58.58
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.25
No position
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.34
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.63
Yes position
Will Tim Walz drop out by January 6?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.4
Yes position
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.27
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.5
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.8
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.78
No position
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.4
No position
Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.39
No position
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.57
Yes position
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.83
No position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $27.11
No position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.38
No position
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.7
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.6
No position
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No 25.1% 149.85 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No 27.7% 361.4 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No 27.5% 726.28 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No 27% 74.07 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 5.4% 200 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 38% 200 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 76.9% 130.04 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No 56.9% 79.12 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?No 94% 148.88 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Yes 13% 20 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?Yes 14.4% 29.99 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Yes 70.9% 50 shares