No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.21K
- Potential profit
- $23.21K
- User PnL
- -$362.29
Polymarket Trader
0x3621459f3C3fDD97Fd2Fd2AfC1E87cF199b09dA2-1778404718800
0x3621459f3c3fdd97fd2fd2afc1e87cf199b09da2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $31.98
- Realized PnL
- $1.69K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $19.72
- Potential payout
- $1.97K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- $9.72
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$28
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $5.96
- Potential payout
- $993.65
- Potential profit
- $987.68
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $608.24
- Potential profit
- $608.24
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $420.73
- Potential profit
- $420.73
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.93
- Potential payout
- $418.3
- Potential profit
- $415.37
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.07
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $412.6
- Potential profit
- $412.6
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $355.6
- Potential profit
- $355.6
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $355.39
- Potential profit
- $355.39
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $330.77
- Potential profit
- $330.77
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.97
- Potential profit
- $312.97
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $309.43
- Potential profit
- $309.43
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $309.17
- Potential profit
- $309.17
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300.68
- Potential profit
- $300.68
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $283.57
- Potential profit
- $283.57
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $256.07
- Potential profit
- $256.07
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $254.52
- Potential profit
- $254.52
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $3.37
- Potential payout
- $249.62
- Potential profit
- $246.25
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$11.63
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $246.54
- Potential profit
- $246.54
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $237.14
- Potential profit
- $237.14
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.96
- Potential profit
- $189.96
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.16
- Potential profit
- $181.16
- User PnL
- -$14.34
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.24
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.28
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.85
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.41
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.57
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.54
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.28
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.13
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.05
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.83
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.38
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.14
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.59
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.68
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.73
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.52
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.47
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 0.5% 1,971.84 shares
- Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 1% 418.3 shares
- Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes 0.6% 993.65 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?Yes 99.3% 101.28 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?Yes 10.9% 137.25 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?Yes 84.4% 80.2 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23?Yes 4.2% 238 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?No 99.9% 191.43 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?No 9.7% 51.44 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?No 10.7% 140 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 23?Yes 11.9% 58.75 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?Yes 14.8% 101.28 shares