F0ulplay

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $352.01
Potential payout: $14.98K
Potential profit: $14.63K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$104.32

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.54K
Potential profit: $12.54K
User PnL: -$212.67

No position

Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Trump out as President by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.11K
Potential profit: $9.11K
User PnL: -$173.09

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $166.92
Potential payout: $8.35K
Potential profit: $8.18K
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: $46.01

Yes position

Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $35.65
Potential payout: $6.48K
Potential profit: $6.45K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$64.34

Yes position

Netanyahu out by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.38K
Potential profit: $5.38K
User PnL: -$40.24

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $58
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.94K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$34

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $247.1
Potential payout: $3.8K
Potential profit: $3.55K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$384.9

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $257.14
Potential payout: $2.86K
Potential profit: $2.6K
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $57.15

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.62K
User PnL: -$97.94

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.26K
Potential profit: $2.26K
User PnL: -$145.38

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.22K
Potential profit: $2.22K
User PnL: -$180.64

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $1.51K
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will UK strike Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $1.23K
User PnL: -$39.46

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $185.48
Potential payout: $741.9
Potential profit: $556.43
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$114.52

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$43.75

Yes position

Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $537.34
Potential profit: $537.34
User PnL: -$50.84

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$140

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $469.4
Potential profit: $469.4
User PnL: -$22.53

Yes position

Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $390.24
Potential profit: $390.24
User PnL: -$14.44

Yes position

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$8.86

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $43.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $56.5
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $3.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $461.3

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.21

Yes position

Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $200.01

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.52

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.62

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.34

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.3

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.08

Yes position

Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $23.3

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.53

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$11.2

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$27.98

Yes position

Will Sébastien Delogu win the Marseille mayor election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.21

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$41.61

Yes position

Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$44

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$49.13

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$49.48

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$95.7

Yes position

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$137

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?