cyril.kf.chan

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $781.2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $18.8
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $381.2

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $8.8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $191.2
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.7
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$5.7

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $5.3
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $194.69
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $26
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $74
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $19

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 36.3%
Current value: $36.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $63.7
Multiplier: 2.75x
User PnL: $31.3

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 29.4%
Current value: $29.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $70.6
Multiplier: 3.40x
User PnL: $19

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.55
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$2.45

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $14.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $85.35
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $6.35

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $5.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.85
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.75
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $4.6
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.4
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $17
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $83
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.1
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.5
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $5.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.65
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $5.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.1
Multiplier: 16.95x
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.5
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.05
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $97.94
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $92.99
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $24.49
Potential payout: $99.94
Potential profit: $75.46
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $18.49

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $208

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.4

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.8

No position

Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.5

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $8.5

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET