Polymarket Trader

marcelobravo

0x36b6d6027e2217f341275b790c6d1296d55be523

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $656.25
Realized PnL: $153.6
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $5.83K
Potential profit: $5.82K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$21.25

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $176.92
Potential profit: $170.47
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$15.54

Yes position

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $11.11
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $100
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$8.89

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 27.7%
Current value: $27.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $72.35
Multiplier: 3.62x
User PnL: $14.75

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $10.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.85
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: -$1.95

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $11.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.75
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$4.65

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $6.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93.95
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$3.35

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 95.1%
Current value: $76.08
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $3.92
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.98

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $48.8
Potential payout: $71.24
Potential profit: $22.44
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$11.9

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $42.35
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $27.65
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: -$6.65

No position

Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 92.6%
Current value: $62.89
Potential payout: $67.91
Potential profit: $5.03
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $17.89

No position

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $26.44
Potential payout: $67.8
Potential profit: $41.36
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: -$11.39

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.2%
Current value: $9.09
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $50.91
Multiplier: 6.60x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $54.29
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $9.3

No position

Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $48.99
Potential payout: $51.98
Potential profit: $2.99
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.02

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $12.27
Potential payout: $51.65
Potential profit: $39.39
Multiplier: 4.21x
User PnL: -$7.73

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $13.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $36.75
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $27.14
Potential payout: $48.04
Potential profit: $20.9
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $7.14

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $38.39
Potential payout: $41.51
Potential profit: $3.11
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Ends Jan 29, 2027

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $37.88
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $2.12
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $14.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $25.6
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$4.6

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $29.05
Potential payout: $32.82
Potential profit: $3.77
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $22.97
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $8.28
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $10.56
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $11.67
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $0.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.2

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $15.75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.49

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $8.14

No position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.8

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.43

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.86

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.59

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $4.4

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Romania No-Confidence vote passes?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the May meeting?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.32

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.17

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?

Yes 7% 6.02 shares
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?

Yes 83% 6.02 shares
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Yes 31% 6.55 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 45% 22.22 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 79% 12.75 shares
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 74% 20.27 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 24% 13.57 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 38% 26.32 shares
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 57.8% 43.25 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

No 38% 13.16 shares
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Yes 61% 6.56 shares
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 60% 8.33 shares