Yes position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $398.01
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $998.99
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$104.91
Polymarket Trader
TroySimmons7450
0x36b88e8bb80cda741a4a96b12dda510e5d9dac4c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $947.11
- Realized PnL
- $6.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $298.78
- Potential payout
- $703
- Potential profit
- $404.23
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$10.55
Anthropic position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $242.55
- Potential payout
- $330
- Potential profit
- $87.45
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $44.55
Yes position
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $3.51
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $74.49
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$27.69
No position
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $3.99
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Melania" this week? (April 19)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Will Harlequins win?
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $490.62
Yes position
Will Trump say "State of the Union" in Corpus Christi on Friday?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.54
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during National Agriculture Day events?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $353.97
Yes position
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 31 be less than 2,000,000?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.56
Yes position
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $275.07
Yes position
Will SK Sigma Olomouc win on 2026-04-18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266
Yes position
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Multiplier
- 4.32x
- User PnL
- $263.42
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" during Board of Peace events on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.8
Yes position
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $217.74
Yes position
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.03
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $202.5
Southern Illinois Salukis position
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.96
Michigan State Spartans position
Michigan State Spartans vs. Temple Owls
Ends Nov 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $176.88
No position
Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.08
No position
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $160.08
Over position
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.6
Yes position
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,700,000 and 1,900,000?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.7
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.11
Yes position
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $109.76
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.7
Yes position
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.15
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $91.98
Yes position
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $85.44
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- New pandemic in 2026?Yes 10% 516 shares
- Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 70% 348 shares
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 66% 717 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 20 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 20 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Yes 90% 35 shares
- Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?No 40% 600 shares