dearpadre

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $11.29
Potential payout: $150.55
Potential profit: $139.26
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$18.71

Yes position

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.04
Potential profit: $120.04
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.34
Potential profit: $105.34
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $3.68
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $67.75
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Crude Oil all time high by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.46
Potential profit: $62.46
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.27
Potential profit: $47.27
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $2.61
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $42.84
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$2.39

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.11
Potential profit: $34.11
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.99

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $17.24
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $7.24

Yes position

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $16.36
Potential profit: $13.58
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$2.57

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$2.79

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.33
Potential profit: $13.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.12
Potential profit: $12.12
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $12.05
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.37
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $10.54
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$3.63

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Maduro guilty of all counts?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.17
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$3.83

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $6.36
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (March 8)

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will Iran strike Oman in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Will Trump say "Cyprus" during Greek Independence Day event?

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Trump post "Terrorist" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Trump post "Terrorist" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Trump say "Jesus" in April?