No position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $59.81
- Potential payout
- $61
- Potential profit
- $1.19
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.69
Polymarket Trader
auramaur
0x377d1939b32fefad321190085c0b28337275dddd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $539.44
- Realized PnL
- $162.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $47.29
- Potential payout
- $59.48
- Potential profit
- $12.19
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $8.03
No position
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $56.78
- Potential payout
- $59.42
- Potential profit
- $2.64
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.11
Yes position
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $21.52
- Potential payout
- $53.13
- Potential profit
- $31.61
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Deep Cross Gaming position
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $6.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $15.69
- Potential payout
- $49.82
- Potential profit
- $34.13
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $22.56
- Potential payout
- $48.01
- Potential profit
- $25.45
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $12.11
- Potential payout
- $43.26
- Potential profit
- $31.15
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$2.6
No position
Obama divorce before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $40.03
- Potential payout
- $42.36
- Potential profit
- $2.33
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $35.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $4.2
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $31.03
- Potential payout
- $35.46
- Potential profit
- $4.43
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.8%
- Current value
- $22.15
- Potential payout
- $35.25
- Potential profit
- $13.1
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $4.67
- Potential payout
- $31.14
- Potential profit
- $26.47
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $25.14
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $4.86
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Yes position
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $21.75
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 2?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.5
- Potential profit
- $28.5
- User PnL
- -$1.71
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $24.99
- Potential payout
- $25.86
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.21
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $23.71
- Potential payout
- $25.29
- Potential profit
- $1.58
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $14.81
- Potential payout
- $24.48
- Potential profit
- $9.67
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $20.87
- Potential payout
- $24.13
- Potential profit
- $3.26
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $4.78
No position
Will England win?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.57
- Potential profit
- $23.57
- User PnL
- -$1.65
No position
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $5.42
- Potential payout
- $23.07
- Potential profit
- $17.65
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $19.18
- Potential payout
- $22.57
- Potential profit
- $3.39
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Elon Bull Run Parlay
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $21.12
- Potential payout
- $21.85
- Potential profit
- $0.73
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.11
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.8
Yes position
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.76
No position
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.16
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.48
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.9
Michele Ribecai position
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.76
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $7.49
No position
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.87
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.52
Guangzhou Loong Lions position
Ningbo Rockets vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.72
No position
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.35
No position
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74
Alexander Bublik position
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.39
No position
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28?
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.24
No position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.77
No position
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 26% 5 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 32% 5 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?No 96.3% 8.41 shares
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 11% 9.94 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 8% 10 shares
- Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?Yes 5% 47.78 shares
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes 18% 5.53 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Yes 48% 10 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 12% 11.12 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 12% 14.56 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 12% 14.56 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 12% 14.56 shares