Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $711.79
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Polymarket Trader
Dev2949
0x379eb5cc740954217643bdd53ec06c2e6138d9e2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $84.55
- Realized PnL
- -$15.98
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $687.92
- Potential profit
- $685.51
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.59
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $647.4
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.44
- Potential payout
- $487.26
- Potential profit
- $484.83
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.56
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $360.09
- Potential profit
- $358.83
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$8.74
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $1.17
- Potential payout
- $335.05
- Potential profit
- $333.87
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$3.83
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $122.27
- Potential profit
- $121.6
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$4.33
Yes position
ECB rate cut in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $9.55
- Potential payout
- $63.64
- Potential profit
- $54.1
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$10.45
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.8%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $21.74
- Potential profit
- $19.39
- Multiplier
- 9.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.65
Yes position
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $4.64
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $7.41
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $4.42
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $3.27
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.34
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$4.66
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $7.26
- Potential payout
- $7.58
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.26
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $7.25
- Potential profit
- $7.2
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $7.16
- Potential payout
- $7.25
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $6.9
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$4.25
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 77.8%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $6.94
- Potential profit
- $1.55
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.79
- Potential payout
- $6.79
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.79
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $6.51
- Potential payout
- $6.76
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $6.56
- Potential payout
- $6.58
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
UK Recession in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $2.09
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $6.08
- Potential payout
- $6.15
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.64
Yes position
Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.06
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
Yes position
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.29
Yes position
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.82
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.27
No position
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 13?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 63% 7.14 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 2.3% 51.1 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 69% 7.25 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 66% 7.58 shares
- Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes 41.5% 12.05 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Yes 23% 21.74 shares
- Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?Yes 58% 8.62 shares
- Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?Yes 69% 7.25 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 65% 7.69 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.9% 51.1 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?No 63% 7.94 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes 37% 13.15 shares