Polymarket Trader

olivas

0x37a0167c1f4b30ca2246f5bff0e0ff3f91fdec34

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.5K
Realized PnL: $801.3
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.23K
Potential profit: $4.23K
User PnL: -$77.98

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $91.91
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $558.09
Multiplier: 7.07x
User PnL: -$233.09

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $554.99
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $45
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 55.4%
Current value: $181.25
Potential payout: $327.46
Potential profit: $146.21
Multiplier: 1.81x
User PnL: -$94.27

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $265.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $34.95
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $115.05

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.7%
Current value: $34.95
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $265.05
Multiplier: 8.58x
User PnL: -$115.05

Yes position

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $74.68
Potential payout: $103
Potential profit: $28.33
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $20.05

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $46.58
Potential payout: $63.38
Potential profit: $16.8
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will fewer than 20 tornadoes occur in the United States in November?

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.97
Potential profit: $59.97
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57
Potential profit: $57
User PnL: -$45.29

No position

Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $53.12
Potential payout: $53.12
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3.72

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $38.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $11.75
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $17,950 or higher in December?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will the Rolex Submariner hit $18,000 or higher in December?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $27.93
Potential payout: $48.58
Potential profit: $20.65
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.95

No position

Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (December 1 - 7)

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$25.2

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $39.9
Potential payout: $42.22
Potential profit: $2.32
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.48

No position

Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (December 15 - 21)

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.16
Potential profit: $33.16
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$4.8

No position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$17.4

Alcaraz position

Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$23.58

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$6.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 85.9%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $237.25

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.8

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.42

No position

Will Trump say "Pocahontas" in October?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.76

No position

Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.49

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 98.1%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $16.55

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.9

No position

Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.85

Yes position

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.61

No position

Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.84

No position

Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.19

No position

Will Lighter reach $4.50 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.06

Yes position

Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.45

No position

Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.3

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.82

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.14

Jiri Lehecka position

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.76

No position

Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.71

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 78% 7.53 shares
Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 90% 8.76 shares
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 88% 6.7 shares
Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 92% 7.5 shares
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?

Yes 92% 7.49 shares
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 80.3% 8.54 shares
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

No 83% 9.46 shares
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

No 79.7% 7.39 shares
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 59.4% 48.58 shares
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Yes 58% 9.95 shares
Celonis IPO before 2027?

No 91% 8.67 shares
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

No 88% 7.83 shares