vivaeuropa

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $458.86
Potential payout: $4.83K
Potential profit: $4.37K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$132.81

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $9.78
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$30.79

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $4.69
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$38.21

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $279.99
Potential profit: $244.99
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $268.39
Potential profit: $267.99
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$14.6

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $33.27
Potential payout: $214.63
Potential profit: $181.36
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$18.73

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $64.98
Potential payout: $188.41
Potential profit: $123.43
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $17.81
Potential payout: $187.5
Potential profit: $169.69
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$12.19

No position

Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $155.87
Potential payout: $161.61
Potential profit: $5.74
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $13.44

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $121.4
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$4.45

No position

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $113.4
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $6.6
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.42

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $109.93
Potential payout: $112.23
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $14.54

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $108.69
Potential payout: $109.35
Potential profit: $0.66
User PnL: $16.74

No position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $87.48
Potential payout: $91.36
Potential profit: $3.88
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $6.58

No position

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $19.8
Potential payout: $90.01
Potential profit: $70.2
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $6.52

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $26.1
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $63.9
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $4.25

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $75.33
Potential payout: $81.88
Potential profit: $6.55
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $5.95

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $21.35
Potential payout: $69.99
Potential profit: $48.64
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $67.56
Potential payout: $68.45
Potential profit: $0.89
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.76

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $11.52
Potential payout: $64
Potential profit: $52.48
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$6.16

No position

Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $54.3
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $22.36
Potential payout: $56.6
Potential profit: $34.25
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$7.64

No position

Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $33.29
Potential payout: $46.88
Potential profit: $13.6
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $0.99

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $42.99
Potential profit: $39.12
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$4.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.23

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.53

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $7.76

No position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

No position

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.45

No position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69

No position

Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.64

No position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.23

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.1

No position

Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $3.09

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $2.83

No position

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.73

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?

Implied probability: 73%
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09

No position

Will Russia enter Borova by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06

No position

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?