Polymarket Trader

Aristocracy

0x37b64800841d95aa267b057fed32acea51aa6457

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.08K
Realized PnL: $9.98K
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.98K
Potential payout: $23.3K
Potential profit: $21.32K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.88K

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$900

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $513.08
Potential payout: $5.4K
Potential profit: $4.89K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$986.92

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.3K
Potential profit: $5.3K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.74K
Potential profit: $4.74K
User PnL: -$521.56

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $504.68
Potential payout: $1.98K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$395.32

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $868.09
Potential profit: $868.09
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $599.99
User PnL: -$132

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$125

Yes position

Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $465.82
Potential profit: $465.82
User PnL: -$88.51

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $86.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.71
Potential profit: $30.71
User PnL: -$5.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53K

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8K

No position

Grok 4.20 released by January 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $927.18

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $287.71

Yes position

Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 28?

Ends Jul 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.7

No position

Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.82

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Jensen Huang in January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80

No position

Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?

Ends Aug 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.63

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.96

No position

Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.91

No position

Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?

Ends Aug 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.88

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Putin and Zelenskyy talk by August 22?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.8%
Multiplier: 10.20x
User PnL: -$67.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$135.98

Yes position

Bitcoin above $114,000 on August 1?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$202.7

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 22?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$399.98

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$656.88

Yes position

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$914.91

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Yes 10.2% 318.29 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 45.5% 1,979.14 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 31% 3,226.88 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No 89% 100 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 82.1% 121.8 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 23% 2,173.91 shares
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

No 5.4% 10,656.8 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 19% 5,000 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 19% 5,500 shares
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

No 39.8% 2,512.45 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 19% 5,500 shares
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Yes 8% 31.25 shares