iumoren

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $32.77
Potential payout: $41.22
Potential profit: $8.45
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$4.23

Yes position

Will Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $28.64
Multiplier: 7.10x
User PnL: -$0.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $10.51
Potential payout: $22.85
Potential profit: $12.34
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$4.49

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.4%
Current value: $18.57
Potential payout: $22.28
Potential profit: $3.71
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $3.57

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $20.02
Potential payout: $22.12
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $19.29
Potential payout: $20.75
Potential profit: $1.46
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $16.53
Potential payout: $19.34
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.49

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $15.87
Potential payout: $18.56
Potential profit: $2.69
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.65
Potential profit: $17.65
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $14.94
Potential payout: $17.58
Potential profit: $2.64
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $16.36
Potential payout: $17.5
Potential profit: $1.14
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $15.98
Potential payout: $16.91
Potential profit: $0.93
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.98

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $10.54
Potential payout: $16.6
Potential profit: $6.06
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $15.47
Potential payout: $16.07
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $15.31
Potential payout: $15.54
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 78.8%
Current value: $11.48
Potential payout: $14.57
Potential profit: $3.09
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $1.48

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 84.9%
Current value: $10.91
Potential payout: $12.85
Potential profit: $1.94
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $10.36
Potential payout: $12.41
Potential profit: $2.05
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $11.87
Potential profit: $6.47
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$2.55

No position

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $7.19
Potential payout: $7.31
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $70 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Grok 4.4 released by July 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.2
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $2.79

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.99

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.71

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?