0x3826...2bc7

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.06
Potential payout: $510.39
Potential profit: $507.33
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$36.94

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $169.93
Potential payout: $196.45
Potential profit: $26.52
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.1

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $110.47
Potential payout: $111.03
Potential profit: $0.56
User PnL: $38.25

Yes position

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $66.47
Potential profit: $63.94
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$2.47

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $9.43
Potential payout: $65.05
Potential profit: $55.62
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$7.63

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $60.87
Potential payout: $61.46
Potential profit: $0.58
User PnL: $3.61

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $34.12
Potential payout: $52.09
Potential profit: $17.97
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $2.72

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $49.2
Potential payout: $49.27
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $1.32

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $47.75
Potential payout: $48.04
Potential profit: $0.29
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $46.47
Potential profit: $45.29
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$0.82

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $45.61
Potential payout: $46.11
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.47

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.51
Potential payout: $39.47
Potential profit: $32.95
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $39.18
Potential profit: $38.93
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $36.4
Potential profit: $31.48
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $33
Potential payout: $33.73
Potential profit: $0.73
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $27.46
Potential payout: $33.28
Potential profit: $5.82
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $29.07
Potential payout: $29.93
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $27.04
Potential profit: $26.9
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

No position

Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $25.39
Potential payout: $25.51
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $8.87
Potential payout: $23.65
Potential profit: $14.78
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$1.96

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $19.06
Potential payout: $22.29
Potential profit: $3.23
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.17

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.83

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $18.92
Potential profit: $18.88
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.41

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $252.93

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.33

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.25

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.73

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.06

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.68

No position

Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.32

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.67

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.53

No position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.31

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.05

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.96

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.46

No position

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.9

No position

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.76

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.33

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $10.06

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.19

No position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.82

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.37

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.21

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?