AlexZ7

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $13.1K
Potential profit: $13.09K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$38.53

Yes position

Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $48.14
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.27K
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$358.85

No position

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $975
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $325
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $169

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $53.5
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $946.49
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $18.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $724
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $76
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $697.2
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$61.2

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $137.55
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $562.45
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $22.05

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$168

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $81.9
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $518.1
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$18.3

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $37.8
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $562.2
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$16.2

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $69
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $530.99
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$263.99

Yes position

Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $490.25
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$26.6

Yes position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $491
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $497.49
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$182.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $474.98
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $498.48
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$48.5

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $366
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$89

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.98
Potential profit: $399.98
User PnL: -$44

Yes position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $375
Potential profit: $375
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$255.2

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $335.7
Potential profit: $335.7
User PnL: -$95.63

Yes position

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $319.11
Potential profit: $319.11
User PnL: -$90

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Bitcoin all time high by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $495.39

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $454.56

Yes position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.3

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $323

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293.15

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.37

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $259

Yes position

Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.12

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.31

Yes position

Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?

Ends Feb 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.35

Yes position

Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $213.49

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.63

Yes position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.23

Yes position

Will Barcelona win La Liga?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.31

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?

Ends Aug 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.75

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $126.7

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.8

Silver position

Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.38

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.95

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.46

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?