Polymarket Trader

0x38A10dbcF0215272815AbF0C12681f95EbaD72A9-1768938478440

0x38a10dbcf0215272815abf0c12681f95ebad72a9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13
Realized PnL: $12.27
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 9
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $80.08
Potential profit: $74.27
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $23.28
Potential profit: $22.4
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Megaquake by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $23.26
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $15.93
Potential profit: $15.43
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.47
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $9.52
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $8.18
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $1.96
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $5.18
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Megaquake by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $4.35
User PnL: -$1

No position

Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.23
Potential profit: $3.23
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.51
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $1.69
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.63
Potential profit: $2.63
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will EUR/USD hit 1.26 (High) in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.84

No position

Will Trump say "Central Casting" this week? (February 1)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $1.79
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19
Potential profit: $1.19
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.57

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during Iowa speech?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

70k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

$60k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Yes 5.8% 23.28 shares
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

Yes 11.6% 8.62 shares
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Down 58% 1.72 shares
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?

Yes 31% 3.23 shares
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Yes 75% 2.63 shares
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?

No 58% 1.72 shares
Will EUR/USD hit 1.26 (High) in 2026?

Yes 56% 1.79 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

$60k 85% 1.18 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

70k 60% 2.9 shares
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

No 29% 3.45 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Yes 28% 3.57 shares
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Yes 11.3% 15.93 shares