No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $363.71
- Potential payout
- $611.27
- Potential profit
- $247.56
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$58.07
Polymarket Trader
Intuition
0x38cddfa012ba69fb29daadde922f085777c4a557
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $363.71
- Realized PnL
- $11.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$34
No position
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.81K
No position
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $772.63
No position
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?
Ends Jul 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $632.46
No position
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $551.5
Yes position
Trump executive order curbing FEMA before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.01
No position
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $523.6
No position
US national XRP reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $474.81
Yes position
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $432.33
No position
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.33
No position
Pete Hegseth nomination withdrawn by Friday?
Ends Dec 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $303.31
Yes position
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.9
No position
Will it snow in D.C. on Inauguration day?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.28
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.56
No position
Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.99
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.44
No position
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.66
Yes position
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.99
Yes position
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.59
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.77
Yes position
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June?
Ends Jul 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139
No position
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.81
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.62
No position
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US national XRP reserve in 2025?No 99.3% 900 shares
- US national XRP reserve in 2025?No 91.1% 100 shares
- Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?No 57% 13.2 shares
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or higher?No 82% 20 shares
- Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?No 19% 34.62 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?No 88% 100 shares
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?Yes 99.5% 1,567.4 shares
- Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?Yes 12.3% 3,445.77 shares
- 1,000+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?No 43% 46.51 shares
- iPhone 16 pro costs $1,399 or more before July?No 88% 20 shares
- Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?Yes 0.8% 160.4 shares
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No 97% 1,500 shares