0x395A7ACCC1a256Bc31cbFa62DF98541a8fa5B446-1774573985772

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $54.64
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.31
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $22.99
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $14.47
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $9.43
Potential profit: $8.71
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.3
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $6.3
Potential profit: $5.51
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $5.95
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.4
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$0.85

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $2.27
Potential payout: $2.56
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.27

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $2.54
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $1.69
Potential profit: $0.52
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $1.61
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $1.49
Potential profit: $0.68
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $1.18
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $1.11
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $1.07
Potential profit: $0.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.06
Potential profit: $0.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.04
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Under position

Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.34

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.62

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.84

Galions Sharks position

LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $5.61

Heroic position

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.01

Over position

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

ASTRAL position

Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Group Stage

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.85

RED Canids position

LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.38

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.37

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Diane Parry position

Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21

Yes position

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-04?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.13

Under position

AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.05

Legacy position

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.02

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.01

Heroic position

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4

BetBoom Team position

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.99

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.98

No position

Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03?