Polymarket Trader

conswang

@tietuow

0x397e636a4e84ff113a9ff622190a5de77a5ace08

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $27.84
Realized PnL: $307.97
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will TYLOO qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.48
Potential profit: $190.48
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.2
Potential profit: $135.2
User PnL: -$19.31

Liquid position

Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $10.68
Potential payout: $85.47
Potential profit: $74.78
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$2.14

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $75
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least 1460?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.84
Potential profit: $69.84
User PnL: -$9.66

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $13.1
Potential payout: $68.97
Potential profit: $55.87
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.24
Potential profit: $44.24
User PnL: -$4.87

Yes position

Will Changchun Yatai FC win on 2025-10-25?

Ends Oct 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $3.58
Potential payout: $34.97
Potential profit: $31.38
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$0.42

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.6
Potential profit: $31.6
User PnL: -$1.58

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.3
Potential profit: $30.3
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?

Ends Oct 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.77
Potential profit: $20.77
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $19.17
Potential profit: $18.7
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $0.24

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.54
Potential profit: $17.54
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.32

Yes position

Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.56

Yes position

Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.2

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.06

Yes position

Will Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?

Ends Oct 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.62

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-19?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.04

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.64

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.17

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?

Ends Oct 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.31

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.73

TYLOO position

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.09

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0.68

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?

Yes 21% 4.76 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

No 44% 2.27 shares
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 3.2% 64.16 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 15% 85.47 shares
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?

Yes 78% 1.85 shares
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 22.9% 4.34 shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 14.6% 7.24 shares
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?

Yes 36% 8.77 shares
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?

No 31% 3.23 shares
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 41% 12.2 shares
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?

Yes 7.2% 15.41 shares
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?

Yes 27% 11.11 shares