Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.3%
- Current value
- $22.45K
- Potential payout
- $92.58K
- Potential profit
- $70.13K
- Multiplier
- 4.12x
- User PnL
- -$23.84K
Polymarket Trader
0x39a6...ebdd
0x39a6626db3a258a609f234da483fa8c43aa6ebdd
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $96.97K
- Realized PnL
- $100.31K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 75.7%
- Current value
- $70.12K
- Potential payout
- $92.58K
- Potential profit
- $22.46K
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $23.83K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.35K
- Potential profit
- $18.35K
- User PnL
- -$3.1K
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $3.31K
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- $774.92
No position
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $716.59
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $2.62K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $116.65
Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $118.9
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$611.52
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$695.05
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $872.91
- Potential profit
- $872.91
- User PnL
- -$646.31
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $856.78
- Potential profit
- $856.78
- User PnL
- -$102.81
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $10.56
- Potential payout
- $325.05
- Potential profit
- $314.49
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$12.19
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $208.9
- Potential payout
- $209
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $119.03
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $30.63
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $94.38
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $19.38
OpenAI position
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $56
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.46K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.89K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.1K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.03K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.09K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.46K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.26K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.67K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.73K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.36K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.79K
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57K
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.39K
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.22K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.93K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67K
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.9% 90,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 76% 6,963.84 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 72.7% 6,292.36 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 7% 325.05 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 20% 14.11 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Yes 7.2% 1,111 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 154.31 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?No 49% 199.21 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 67.9% 2,868.83 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes 26.6% 2,645.6 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 110.34 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?No 15.2% 730.1 shares